AAPL, Long
Stated horizon 1 week
$AAPL breaking out of the flag on volume. Long, looking for a move this week.
| Horizon | Stock | vs SPY | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −4.1% | −4.7% | Miss |
| 1 month | −10.8% | −7.0% | Miss |
| 3 months | +1.0% | +3.7% | Hit |
Sample data — real records arrive after the first data run
Call record for @sample_chart_dana
Chart Dana
Hit rate, 1 month
18%
of 11 scored calls, 90% interval 6–43%
| Horizon | Hit rate | Excess return vs SPY | Scored Calls | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 33% | −1.3% | 12 | 16–57% |
| 1 month | 18% | −2.8% | 11 | 6–43% |
| 3 months | 22% | −5.9% | 9 | 8–50% |
Sample figures computed from fictional calls, measured against SPY over the same window as each call. No data run has happened yet.
How calls are scoredThe link unfurls as this record's card: hit rate, excess return vs SPY, scored calls, the 90% interval and the methodology address.
How to read a record
- Hit rate
- The share of scored calls with a positive excess return in the direction of the call.
- Excess return vs SPY
- How far the stock beat or trailed SPY over the same window, counted in the direction of the call and averaged across scored calls.
- Scored calls
- Calls old enough to measure at that horizon. Newer calls join as their window closes.
- 90% interval
- A Wilson score interval: the range the true hit rate likely sits in, given how many calls there are.
Scored calls
12 calls in date order, oldest first. Each one quotes the original post.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at TSLA, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$TSLA lost the 50 day. Short it back to the gap.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the TSLA call from Oct 1, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −0.8% +0.6% Hit 1 month +8.7% −10.5% Miss 3 months +9.0% −4.4% Miss AMD, Long
$AMD long off the 200 day. Clean bounce setup.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the AMD call from Oct 27, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −1.7% −1.8% Miss 1 month −7.4% −6.6% Miss 3 months +9.7% −4.3% Miss NFLX, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$NFLX double top on the daily. Shorting here with a stop above the high.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the NFLX call from Nov 19, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +4.8% −4.1% Miss 1 month +1.4% −1.3% Miss 3 months +10.4% −6.2% Miss META, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
Long $META, cup and handle confirmed this morning.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the META call from Dec 15, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −3.6% −3.0% Miss 1 month +14.7% +8.9% Hit 3 months +6.9% −1.9% Miss SHOP, Short
$SHOP short. Head and shoulders neckline just broke.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the SHOP call from Jan 22, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +1.4% −0.2% Miss 1 month −1.4% −4.4% Miss 3 months +0.6% −0.7% Miss COIN, Long
Stated horizon 1 week
$COIN long over this resistance level. Momentum is back.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the COIN call from Feb 24, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −1.6% −0.8% Miss 1 month −7.9% −7.4% Miss 3 months −17.1% −31.2% Miss NKE, Short
Stated horizon 1 month
$NKE short. Lower highs all year and it just failed at the 20 day again.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the NKE call from Mar 30, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +3.6% −6.8% Miss 1 month +4.9% −5.7% Miss 3 months −1.0% +3.8% Hit AVGO, Long
$AVGO long. Tight base for six weeks, breaking out today.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the AVGO call from May 4, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.4% +3.2% Hit 1 month −0.9% −5.9% Miss 3 months +2.4% −12.1% Miss DIS, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$DIS short under the range lows. Measured move says lower.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the DIS call from Jun 11, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +0.3% +0.5% Hit 1 month −13.3% +13.3% Hit 3 months Window still open PLTR, Long
Stated horizon 1 week
$PLTR long on the retest of the breakout level.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the PLTR call from Jul 15, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −3.3% −3.3% Miss 1 month −4.6% −4.4% Miss 3 months Window still open BA, Short
Stated horizon 1 month
$BA short. Bear flag on the weekly.
Posted by @sample_chart_dana at Scores for the BA call from Aug 12, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −7.8% +5.3% Hit 1 month Window still open 3 months Window still open