KO, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Long $KO. Dividend king and the pricing power holds.
| Horizon | Stock | vs SPY | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.7% | −0.4% | Miss |
| 1 month | +4.7% | +2.3% | Hit |
| 3 months | −10.8% | −12.5% | Miss |
Sample data — real records arrive after the first data run
Call record for @sample_dividend_dee
Dividend Dee
Hit rate, 1 month
70%
of 10 scored calls, 90% interval 44–87%
| Horizon | Hit rate | Excess return vs SPY | Scored Calls | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 40% | −0.6% | 10 | 19–65% |
| 1 month | 70% | +0.9% | 10 | 44–87% |
| 3 months | 38% | −2.1% | 8 | 16–65% |
Sample figures computed from fictional calls, measured against SPY over the same window as each call. No data run has happened yet.
How calls are scoredThe link unfurls as this record's card: hit rate, excess return vs SPY, scored calls, the 90% interval and the methodology address.
How to read a record
- Hit rate
- The share of scored calls with a positive excess return in the direction of the call.
- Excess return vs SPY
- How far the stock beat or trailed SPY over the same window, counted in the direction of the call and averaged across scored calls.
- Scored calls
- Calls old enough to measure at that horizon. Newer calls join as their window closes.
- 90% interval
- A Wilson score interval: the range the true hit rate likely sits in, given how many calls there are.
Scored calls
10 calls in date order, oldest first. Each one quotes the original post.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at O, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Adding $O, long. Monthly dividend and rates are heading lower.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the O call from Oct 14, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −4.1% −3.0% Miss 1 month +3.8% +4.1% Hit 3 months +11.3% +9.2% Hit PEP, Long
$PEP long here. The yield is the highest it's been in years.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the PEP call from Nov 5, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −2.1% −2.4% Miss 1 month +0.3% +1.8% Hit 3 months +4.2% −2.6% Miss JNJ, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Long $JNJ after the litigation selloff. The dividend is safe.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the JNJ call from Dec 9, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.3% +1.5% Hit 1 month −0.7% +0.5% Hit 3 months −13.3% −6.3% Miss ABBV, Long
$ABBV long. The Humira cliff is behind it.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the ABBV call from Jan 20, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −0.5% +0.3% Hit 1 month −0.4% −0.5% Miss 3 months −6.2% −3.2% Miss MO, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Buying $MO for the yield. Long.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the MO call from Feb 26, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.1% −0.7% Miss 1 month −4.3% +1.9% Hit 3 months −0.4% +5.4% Hit TXN, Long
Long $TXN. The payout keeps growing and the cycle bottomed.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the TXN call from Apr 1, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −2.0% −1.4% Miss 1 month +1.5% +0.6% Hit 3 months +0.6% −6.8% Miss XOM, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
$XOM long. Buybacks plus the yield.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the XOM call from May 6, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +0.4% −1.2% Miss 1 month +1.3% −7.6% Miss 3 months +1.7% +0.3% Hit PG, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
Long $PG into earnings. Volumes are stabilizing.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the PG call from Jun 16, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.7% +0.1% Hit 1 month −3.3% −2.1% Miss 3 months Window still open T, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
$T long. Free cash flow finally covers the dividend with room to spare.
Posted by @sample_dividend_dee at Scores for the T call from Jul 28, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.1% +1.6% Hit 1 month +9.3% +7.9% Hit 3 months Window still open