TLT, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Long $TLT here. Yields have peaked for this cycle and duration finally pays.
| Horizon | Stock | vs SPY | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | +4.4% | +3.9% | Hit |
| 1 month | −3.7% | −2.0% | Miss |
| 3 months | −18.1% | −15.0% | Miss |
Sample data — real records arrive after the first data run
Call record for @sample_macro_mike
Macro Mike
Hit rate, 1 month
64%
of 11 scored calls, 90% interval 39–82%
| Horizon | Hit rate | Excess return vs SPY | Scored Calls | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 17% | −1.5% | 12 | 6–40% |
| 1 month | 64% | +2.6% | 11 | 39–82% |
| 3 months | 50% | −3.4% | 10 | 27–73% |
Sample figures computed from fictional calls, measured against SPY over the same window as each call. No data run has happened yet.
How calls are scoredThe link unfurls as this record's card: hit rate, excess return vs SPY, scored calls, the 90% interval and the methodology address.
How to read a record
- Hit rate
- The share of scored calls with a positive excess return in the direction of the call.
- Excess return vs SPY
- How far the stock beat or trailed SPY over the same window, counted in the direction of the call and averaged across scored calls.
- Scored calls
- Calls old enough to measure at that horizon. Newer calls join as their window closes.
- 90% interval
- A Wilson score interval: the range the true hit rate likely sits in, given how many calls there are.
Scored calls
12 calls in date order, oldest first. Each one quotes the original post.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at XLE, Short
Short $XLE into the OPEC meeting. Supply is coming back and crude rolls over.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the XLE call from Sep 29, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +1.4% −0.6% Miss 1 month +5.1% −2.3% Miss 3 months +13.4% −9.1% Miss GLD, Long
Buying $GLD on this dip. Central banks keep adding and real yields are rolling over.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the GLD call from Oct 20, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −3.6% −2.6% Miss 1 month 0.0% +0.4% Hit 3 months +12.7% +12.0% Hit JPM, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
$JPM long. Net interest margin holds up better than the street thinks.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the JPM call from Nov 12, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −5.8% −4.1% Miss 1 month +12.5% +9.4% Hit 3 months +17.1% +14.7% Hit IWM, Short
Stated horizon 3 months
Short $IWM. Small caps can't handle rates at these levels for another quarter.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the IWM call from Dec 3, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +3.5% −3.3% Miss 1 month −9.7% +7.6% Hit 3 months −11.0% +5.3% Hit QQQ, Long
Long $QQQ. Liquidity is turning and megacap earnings keep delivering.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the QQQ call from Jan 6, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +8.7% +6.1% Hit 1 month +2.9% +2.9% Hit 3 months −18.8% −24.9% Miss FXI, Short
Stated horizon 1 month
$FXI short. Stimulus headlines fade every time, this bounce is a sell.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the FXI call from Feb 10, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.9% −2.0% Miss 1 month −19.9% +17.3% Hit 3 months +12.6% +0.3% Hit CAT, Long
Adding $CAT long. Infrastructure spend is finally showing up in orders.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the CAT call from Mar 17, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −6.8% −4.8% Miss 1 month +7.1% +1.7% Hit 3 months +7.1% −2.9% Miss KRE, Short
Stated horizon 3 months
Short $KRE. Commercial real estate losses are not priced into regional banks.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the KRE call from Apr 21, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +7.3% −2.5% Miss 1 month +5.9% −4.2% Miss 3 months −3.5% +4.3% Hit EEM, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Long $EEM for the next 3 months. The dollar has topped.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the EEM call from May 27, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −4.6% −2.9% Miss 1 month +0.6% +4.2% Hit 3 months −17.3% −18.3% Miss HD, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$HD short into earnings. Housing turnover is dead and comps will show it.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the HD call from Jul 8, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +0.5% −1.3% Miss 1 month +4.2% −6.2% Miss 3 months Window still open XLU, Long
Long $XLU. Power demand from datacenters makes utilities a growth trade now.
Posted by @sample_macro_mike at Scores for the XLU call from Aug 18, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −2.1% −4.3% Miss 1 month Window still open 3 months Window still open