NVDA, Long
Stated horizon 1 week
Loading $NVDA calls. Long into earnings, this goes higher.
| Horizon | Stock | vs SPY | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.6% | −1.5% | Miss |
| 1 month | −6.8% | −4.0% | Miss |
| 3 months | −15.6% | −28.1% | Miss |
Sample data — real records arrive after the first data run
Call record for @sample_options_ola
Options Ola
Hit rate, 1 month
45%
of 11 scored calls, 90% interval 24–68%
| Horizon | Hit rate | Excess return vs SPY | Scored Calls | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 42% | +0.8% | 12 | 22–64% |
| 1 month | 45% | −2.3% | 11 | 24–68% |
| 3 months | 33% | −4.1% | 9 | 14–60% |
Sample figures computed from fictional calls, measured against SPY over the same window as each call. No data run has happened yet.
How calls are scoredThe link unfurls as this record's card: hit rate, excess return vs SPY, scored calls, the 90% interval and the methodology address.
How to read a record
- Hit rate
- The share of scored calls with a positive excess return in the direction of the call.
- Excess return vs SPY
- How far the stock beat or trailed SPY over the same window, counted in the direction of the call and averaged across scored calls.
- Scored calls
- Calls old enough to measure at that horizon. Newer calls join as their window closes.
- 90% interval
- A Wilson score interval: the range the true hit rate likely sits in, given how many calls there are.
Scored calls
12 calls in date order, oldest first. Each one quotes the original post.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at SMCI, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$SMCI short. Too far too fast, puts on.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the SMCI call from Oct 6, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +4.7% −5.7% Miss 1 month +7.4% −6.7% Miss 3 months −33.4% +22.0% Hit MSTR, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
Long $MSTR. The bitcoin breakout drags this with it.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the MSTR call from Oct 30, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +12.4% +12.9% Hit 1 month +23.6% +16.5% Hit 3 months −3.3% −3.0% Miss TSLA, Long
Stated horizon 1 week
$TSLA long into the product event. Calls bought.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the TSLA call from Nov 24, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +5.5% +8.1% Hit 1 month +12.8% +13.4% Hit 3 months +28.8% +23.2% Hit RIVN, Short
Stated horizon 1 month
Short $RIVN. Cash burn catches up with it this quarter.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the RIVN call from Dec 17, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −7.4% +8.3% Hit 1 month −21.0% +15.8% Hit 3 months +19.5% −16.0% Miss AMZN, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
$AMZN long, calls for next month. AWS reaccelerates.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the AMZN call from Jan 27, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −2.8% −0.8% Miss 1 month +11.9% +9.6% Hit 3 months +28.4% +28.8% Hit GME, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$GME short, the squeeze is over.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the GME call from Mar 3, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +3.0% −0.6% Miss 1 month +27.8% −26.5% Miss 3 months +36.5% −31.7% Miss ARM, Long
Long $ARM. The AI royalties story is just starting.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the ARM call from Apr 7, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −2.7% −4.8% Miss 1 month −20.6% −19.6% Miss 3 months −12.3% −15.8% Miss UBER, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
Buying $UBER calls. Long, the ride volume numbers are strong.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the UBER call from May 12, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +5.8% +3.1% Hit 1 month −9.6% −9.9% Miss 3 months −23.7% −16.3% Miss LULU, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
Short $LULU into earnings. Competition is eating their lunch.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the LULU call from Jun 9, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −4.2% +3.0% Hit 1 month −0.9% +1.3% Hit 3 months Window still open SOFI, Long
Stated horizon 1 month
$SOFI long. Member growth keeps compounding.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the SOFI call from Jul 14, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −7.6% −10.1% Miss 1 month −18.2% −15.5% Miss 3 months Window still open MARA, Short
Stated horizon 1 week
$MARA short. Hashprice is collapsing.
Posted by @sample_options_ola at Scores for the MARA call from Aug 19, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +1.5% −2.4% Miss 1 month Window still open 3 months Window still open