INTC, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Long $INTC. Trading below book with the foundry optionality for free.
| Horizon | Stock | vs SPY | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.8% | −1.5% | Miss |
| 1 month | −2.3% | −0.7% | Miss |
| 3 months | −0.7% | −7.9% | Miss |
Sample data — real records arrive after the first data run
Call record for @sample_value_vik
Value Vik
Hit rate, 1 month
60%
of 10 scored calls, 90% interval 35–81%
| Horizon | Hit rate | Excess return vs SPY | Scored Calls | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 60% | −0.4% | 10 | 35–81% |
| 1 month | 60% | +3.1% | 10 | 35–81% |
| 3 months | 25% | −4.2% | 8 | 9–54% |
Sample figures computed from fictional calls, measured against SPY over the same window as each call. No data run has happened yet.
How calls are scoredThe link unfurls as this record's card: hit rate, excess return vs SPY, scored calls, the 90% interval and the methodology address.
How to read a record
- Hit rate
- The share of scored calls with a positive excess return in the direction of the call.
- Excess return vs SPY
- How far the stock beat or trailed SPY over the same window, counted in the direction of the call and averaged across scored calls.
- Scored calls
- Calls old enough to measure at that horizon. Newer calls join as their window closes.
- 90% interval
- A Wilson score interval: the range the true hit rate likely sits in, given how many calls there are.
Scored calls
10 calls in date order, oldest first. Each one quotes the original post.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at PFE, Long
$PFE long here. The yield is paid for and the pipeline is better than the price says.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the PFE call from Sep 24, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.9% −0.6% Miss 1 month +12.9% +7.0% Hit 3 months −0.3% −2.1% Miss VZ, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
Buying $VZ. Boring, cheap, and the dividend is covered.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the VZ call from Oct 28, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −0.3% +0.9% Hit 1 month +3.5% −1.5% Miss 3 months +1.6% +4.2% Hit BABA, Long
Long $BABA at 9x earnings. Too cheap to ignore.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the BABA call from Nov 25, 2025, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −1.3% +1.0% Hit 1 month +12.6% +9.6% Hit 3 months −3.4% +4.1% Hit WBD, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
$WBD long. Free cash flow yield over 20% at this price.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the WBD call from Jan 13, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −3.8% −4.8% Miss 1 month +2.8% +3.4% Hit 3 months −0.7% −7.1% Miss CVS, Long
Starting a position in $CVS, long. The market is pricing in a disaster that isn't coming.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the CVS call from Feb 18, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +3.0% +0.1% Hit 1 month −3.4% +1.2% Hit 3 months +1.2% −4.0% Miss SNOW, Short
Stated horizon 3 months
Short $SNOW. 20x sales for slowing growth is not value at any stage.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the SNOW call from Mar 24, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −1.3% +0.1% Hit 1 month −8.0% +8.1% Hit 3 months −1.9% −2.1% Miss F, Long
Long $F. Single digit P/E and the EV losses are shrinking.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the F call from Apr 28, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +2.2% +1.2% Hit 1 month −0.1% −1.6% Miss 3 months −15.9% −18.4% Miss MMM, Long
Stated horizon 3 months
$MMM long after the spinoff. Sum of the parts is well above this price.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the MMM call from Jun 2, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week −2.9% −0.7% Miss 1 month −1.6% −3.8% Miss 3 months Window still open BMY, Long
Long $BMY. Cheapest big pharma on forward earnings.
Posted by @sample_value_vik at Scores for the BMY call from Jul 21, 2026, measured against SPY over the same window Horizon Stock vs SPY Result 1 week +0.8% +0.5% Hit 1 month +9.5% +9.1% Hit 3 months Window still open