Check the record before you take the trade.
CallTally backtests an X account's stock calls against SPY, so you see its hit rate before you follow the next one.
Sample data — real records arrive after the first data run
Record for @sample_macro_mike
Macro Mike
Hit rate, 1 month
64%
of 11 scored calls, 90% interval 39–82%
| Horizon | Hit rate | Excess return vs SPY | Scored Calls | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 17% | −1.5% | 12 | 6–40% |
| 1 month | 64% | +2.6% | 11 | 39–82% |
| 3 months | 50% | −3.4% | 10 | 27–73% |
How to read a record
- Hit rate
- The share of scored calls with a positive excess return in the direction of the call.
- Excess return vs SPY
- How far the stock beat or trailed SPY over the same window, counted in the direction of the call and averaged across scored calls.
- Scored calls
- Calls old enough to measure at that horizon. Newer calls join as their window closes.
- 90% interval
- A Wilson score interval: the range the true hit rate likely sits in, given how many calls there are.
Why keep score
- A confident thread is not a track record.
- You cannot scroll back a year to see how an account's calls turned out.
- Follower counts say nothing about whether the calls beat the market.
How a call is scored
- Counts
- A post in the account's own words that names a ticker and a direction, long or short. When a post is ambiguous, it is left out.
- Doesn't count
- Vague sector talk, questions, retweets of other accounts, and after-the-fact “I told you so” posts.
- Measured
- The stock's return minus SPY's return over the same window, at 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after the post.
- Hit
- A positive excess return in the direction of the call. Anything else is a miss.
| Call | Stock | SPY | In the call's direction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long | +6.0% | +2.0% | +4.0% | Hit |
| Long | +1.0% | +2.5% | −1.5% | Miss |
| Short | −3.0% | +1.0% | +4.0% | Hit |
Every call's return is measured against SPY over the same window. The 90% interval around each hit rate is a Wilson score interval, so a record built on few calls shows how uncertain it is.
Read the methodologyWhat's on a record
- Every scored call, quoted
- The original post word for word, with its timestamp, in date order. Hits and misses stay side by side.
- Three horizons
- Return and excess return vs SPY at 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after each call.
- A Dispute button on every call
- Pick a reason and a person reviews it. The numbers don't change until a reviewer rules.
- One shareable card
- Post an account's record card to X or copy its link. The card carries the methodology address.
- A public methodology
- What counts as a call, every formula, the data source and how disputes are reviewed.
The next call is already posted.
Know an account's hit rate and excess return before acting on its call.
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